Will Obama Lose The Baltic States?
A Commentary by J. D. Longstreet
OK. Let's take a count. The Crimea and now the eastern portion of the Ukraine. (For
those of you less comfortable with the classic term for Ukraine and
Crimea, which is today adding "the" before the name of each of those
countries, feel free to overlook my use of the classic terminology.
For me, standard English is NOT a second language and on occasion,
classic English is employed by this scribe to embellish a point or even
to make a point. I shall continue my usage of "the" before both the
Ukraine and the Crimea.)
As I said, Putin's Russia
has drawn the Crimea back into the Russian fold and has moved troops up
to the borders of the eastern most portion of the Ukraine. Should he
decide to invade the Ukraine, no doubt he will be successful and the
West -- or as we are referring to the alliance of western states today
-- "the Unled," will have lost again.
careful attention -- for this is how you fight a politically correct
war. Obama is doing all the politically correct things and he is
getting his lunch eaten, having his derriere handed to him, by the very
politically incorrect Mr. Putin. (Have you noticed how scribes today
tend to place MR. before the name Putin and leave it off when referring
to Obama? Ummm. a Freudian slip, perhaps??)
Speaking of having Obama's lunch eaten, the US responded to pleas for arms and ammunition by the Ukraine with (Are you ready for this?) a stack of MRE's! (Meals Ready to Eat. They took the place of the old C-rations and K-rations.) The last I heard those MRE's were still in the warehouse somewhere.
Baltic states Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania gained independence from
the Russian Empire in the wake of World War I. In the period between the
World Wars, the Baltic states also included Finland. But today we tend
to think of the first three, named above, as the current Baltic
states. These small countries are located in northern Europe east of
the Baltic Sea.
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have been members of both the EU and NATO since 2004.
Estonia and Latvia border directly to their east with -- Russia.
is believed that Putin, in his endeavor to recreate the old Soviet
Union, will most certainly want to reoccupy all three of the Baltic
we noted above, all three of the states are members of NATO as well as
the European Union. An attack upon any NATO member is considered an
attack upon all NATO members and that includes the United States.
But the problem is, you see -- Obama!
far as the Russians are concerned -- they have already seen Obama's
proclivity for inaction, demonstrated in Syria and, most recently, in
the Crimea and the Ukraine. They do not fear any interference from NATO
which is led, for all intents and purposes, by the US, which means --
it is led by Obama.
At the moment the Baltic states are hanging out there as so much red meat for the Russian wolves.
the coming days and weeks, we may gain more insight into the plans of
Putin for the Baltic states by watching closely what he does with the
eastern portion of the Ukraine.
Plainly put, the Baltic states are his for the taking and Putin knows it.
the thing, however. The Crimea and the Ukraine are in dire financial
straits. While Russia may be awash in petro dollars, she really can't
afford to take on more debt. However, by re-taking the Crimea, Putin has just assumed the debt of the Crimea.
THAT may be why those thousands of Russian troops have stopped at the
border of the Ukraine. The bean counters, back in the Kremlin, may have
must run the numbers and slipped them to Czar Putin.
economy of the Ukraine has been run into the ground -- and then some.
Does Putin really want to assume their debt as well? Even a
megalomaniac must consider options such as these.
So -- what's Putin going to do? Well, in my estimation it is a bit if a toss-up.
Look. Down on Russia's southern border sits a ancient land called Cathay/China. China worries Russia -- all the time.
Russia/Putin understands that China is a threat and a threat Russia
cannot handle alone. When that fact is considered, a new light is shed
upon the machinations of Mr. Putin in the Ukraine.
everyone knows the US is not going to get into a war with a nuclear
armed Russia over the Ukraine or the Baltic states. A clandestine war
may be altogether something else, however.
what the US missile emplacements were all about in eastern Poland and
the Czech Republic. You know, the ones Obama canceled when he decided
to - uh - "reset" the "relations with Russia" button? Yeah, the very
ones! They were intended to discourage Russia from doing exactly what
she has just done and continues to do. America's strategic thinkers
had that one right. Unfortunately, our limp-wristed, flower child of a
President is unable to see beyond his, er, teleprompter. His total lack
of understanding of the world we live in now has the eastern half of
Europe in the grip of fear and uncertainty while the Russian bear prowls
their eastern borders completely at will.
convinced that Putin really DOES want to invade the eastern Ukraine.
The so called Donbass region which is heavily populated with Russians
speaking Ukrainians. Putin feels he is on a roll and he'd really rather
keep rolling. He knows he has noting to fear from the US or NATO. But
--and here is where China comes in -- Putin knows he has China watching his every move from his vast southern border, his soft underbelly, if you will.
is smart. Far more cunning than the US president and far more
understanding of world politics. He also deals, for the most part, in
reality. He is also willing to do whatever it takes to accomplish his
Look. Putin knows he might well find himself
in a situation with China in which he will inevitable need assistance
from the western countries. So, he can't afford to sever all the cords
that bind us, one to the other.
Over its history, Russia has a record of fighting many wars -- and losing many wars. Most of the time, if not all of the time, the losses were due to poor leadership.
is a vast country with multiple cultures composed of many races.
Ruling Russia has been, over the centuries, akin to herding cats! From
the Czars to the Bolsheviks to, whatever the heck they are now, taking
Russians to war is a hit or miss proposition. That's not a "put-down"
of the Russian soldier. It is my interpretation of the historical record
of Russia's past.
Too, Putin is trying to rebuild Russia's military after Russia's near total collapse in the late eighties and early nineties.
A great deal of Mr. Putin's chest thumping is bluff. (One tends to listen to bluster from a man shaking his fist in your face while his other fist holds nuclear missiles!)
He is covering his weakness with bluster. He is encroaching into the
western hemisphere, going head to head, with America's Monroe Doctrine,
which plainly tells European states to stay the heck out of our
backyard. The Russian naval and air bases in Cuba and in Venezuela (and
other places in South America) are, for the most part, merely to draw
our attention away from his ambitions closer to Mother Russia.
our intelligence services, our diplomatic services, and the executive
branch of our government is in such a state of disarray, much of what
the US government says about Putin and Russia these days is pure "guesstimation."
The US is much weaker today than we were on December 7th, 1941.
we are going to be hit. The continental United States is a target --
and we will be struck, and fairly soon, most likely with a nuclear
weapon over Manhattan or Washington, DC.
needn't be. Like Russia we have a soft underbelly, too. The Mexican
border and the Gulf coast. That door is wide open. There is nothing to
stop our enemies from initiating an attack from that quarter, an attack
that would be largely successful.
Look. The US has a
troop of amateurs running our government. Heck, they can't even run a
website on the Internet -- and we expect them to run a country? What?
Are we nuts?
Apparently we are. And we are going to be vulnerable for a very long time into the future.
I would suggest to Mr. Obama and Mr. Kerry, that they should just shut up. I mean, stop talking, babbling, threatening. It makes them look like children and stresses their weakness rather than their imagined strength.
Mr. Putin will eventually make his move -- or not.
There's not a cussed thing the US can do about it, so why pretend?
Obama missed his chance at gaining Mr. Putin's respect when he stopped
the missiles in Poland and the Czech Republic. That was indescribably dumb on Obama's part, but is is spilt milk. These are the consequences -- at least part of them. This is a multi-act play. We have yet to see what comes next. And believe me -- there is more... much more.
J. D. Longstreet
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